Welcome to The MHB Podcast. This is Michael Baun. And welcome to my 129th episode. In this episode I want to talk about how to respond to disaster. There are certain occasions called black swan events. A black swan is an unpredictable event that goes beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Coronavirus is a black swan event. You might say, well, the only reason we didn’t see this coming is because China lied to the world. This is true. China’s actions in the wake of this outbreak are something we’d expect from a rogue state. Without a doubt, this virus has set the entire world back precisely because of China’s nefarious behavior. But all things considered I think this pandemic is a black swan for China as well. At no point have they been able to keep it contained within their own country. At the time of this podcast China is reporting a death toll that is far less than evidence suggests it actually is. This virus has exacted great cost from China both financially and humanly. It’s safe to say at this point that the entire world was significantly under prepared for an event like this. Even places that have done well – like South Korea – have done so mostly by chance. For example, the air quality in southeast Asia is very poor. Poor air quality means a ready supply of masks. A masked population means far less spread of the virus . Far less spread of the virus means you get to keep your economy open and your death toll remains low – you get the point.
In 1918 the world was rocked by a different pandemic called the Spanish Flu. This virus likely originated in the United States, but Spain was stuck with the name because of their neutrality in World War I. Neither side of the war wanted to report outbreaks because they feared it would lower their people’s morale. This wasn’t a problem for Spain. The Spanish Flu infected 500 million people which was about 25% of the world’s population at the time. The death toll was estimated to be anywhere from 17 to 100 million people. One reason the Spanish Flu was so horrible is that it killed people primarily between the ages 18 and 25. This was due to what is called a cytokine storm. A cytokine storm happens when your own immune system destroys your body in an effort to stamp out the infection. People between the ages 18 and 25 have particularly strong immune systems – therefore they have more deadly cytokine storms. When you experience a cytokine storm, it’s not the virus that kills you, it’s your body’s response to the virus. And I believe we are at risk for something like a societal cytokine storm in response to the coronavirus. I think this danger lies in the extremes of how we respond. The people who argue for reopening the economy at the expense of communal spread are advocating one dangerous extreme. The people who desire tyrannical overlords and seek to turn in their neighbors for not social distancing occupy the other dangerous extreme. Both of these groups represent something approximating a societal overreaction to what’s happening at this moment.
I want to examine each of these danger zones and discuss why I think they are unhealthy. Then I want to walk you through what I believe is the appropriate way of responding to disaster. So first let’s think about the commentary which questions the danger of coronavirus. The most popular talking point here is to compare coronavirus to influenza. The comparison is meant to show that influenza kills tens of thousands of people in the United States each year – and yet we don’t shut down our society on the basis of influenza. Of course this comparison is fallacious because coronavirus is about three times more contagious than influenza and it’s also more lethal. One piece of evidence in highlighting the difference between coronavirus and influenza is the trauma we are watching our health care workers experience. These are the same health care workers that deal with seasonal influenza patients every year – and yet many of them are reporting how distressing it is to be overloaded with victims of coronavirus. Several have taken their own lives. So if we end up coming out of this pandemic with death tolls similar to seasonal influenza it will only be on account of effective social distancing. The social distancing guidelines presented by the CDC and the U.S. Federal Government have brought on their own set of challenges. Most of our economy has been brought to a screeching halt. Livelihoods are being thrust into doubt by the millions. These drastic measures have resulted in a broad base of commentators suggesting that we are overreacting to this virus. There are many leaders inside the Church who refused to close their doors until the state or local government ordered them to.
A narrative has sprung up inside the Church that this virus is the work of Satan in his effort to close churches. Some have also suggested that the government is using it to close churches. The consequence of this narrative is the false dichotomy that abiding by CDC guidelines means giving in to the enemy. Needless to say that idea is very stupid. The truth is this virus has no agency. It’s not seeking you out to kill you any more than the asbestos in your walls should you breathe it in. This virus is just a dangerous particle that is being passed unknowingly from person to person. It’s nothing more than that. It’s not going to sneak in and attack you while your guard is down. You can only catch it if you inhale it or if you touch it yourself. It’s so important to consider it this way because this gives you some control. You can take proper precautions to minimize your chances of infection. But the opposite is also true. If you pay no respect to this virus then you will maximize your likelihood of infection.
The coronavirus is contagious enough that it could burn through a significant portion of the population in the span of months if we do nothing. Our hospital system would collapse under the weight of the outbreak. It would be difficult for you to get treatment for COVID-19 let alone any other malady you might have. Health care workers would become infected and reduce our hospital capacity even more. A world without social distancing would look like people dying in the streets literally in every city across America. The latest estimate suggests 2.2 million people would die if we reopened our society and let the virus spread. To put this in perspective, that’s more Americans than we lost in the Civil War, World War I, and World War II combined and then doubled. Those who fear the economic repercussions of this shutdown more than they fear this virus simply haven’t made contact with the reality of this virus. To experience that much death in such a short amount of time would mean a hospital system rendered useless for months as well as regularly watching people die right in front you during your day-to-day existence.
And it wouldn’t just be the elderly dying. We’re seeing a low instance of mortality in younger people from coronavirus but these numbers take into consideration functioning hospitals. If you’re young and fit and you get pneumonia from this virus you can go to a hospital and recover rather reliably. But what if you can’t get into any hospitals? What if you have to beat the pneumonia in your own bed? Well then your chances of death or permanent injury increase dramatically. In parts of the world where the virus is well-managed, we are seeing a case-fatality rate of about 1%. That’s approximately ten times worse than the average case of influenza which has a case-fatality rate of 0.1%. But in parts of the world where the virus is out of control, like Italy, we are seeing a case-fatality rate of up to 10% – which is 100 times worse than the average case of influenza. The main difference between a death rate of 1% and 10% is whether or not you successfully flatten the curve and prevent your hospital system from being overwhelmed. That’s why governments are so afraid of this thing and that’s why they chose to shut down our economy. And none of that considers the problem of needing hospitalized for non-coronavirus reasons. If our hospitals are unavailable for six months, what are the chances you might need one? How many simple injuries or illnesses become lethal when access to proper care is eliminated? These are just some of the reasons why a massive wave of coronavirus infections is a terrible prospect.
I have some questions for those who believe the government is using this virus to steal their liberty or close their churches. Was any of this happening before the outbreak? Was the government trying to put you out of work and make you depend on them before coronavirus? Or were we experiencing the best economic performance in the history of the world? And what about all of the other countries? Were they in on the conspiracy and willing to demolish their own societies to make it happen? Most of the people who occupy positions of power in this world also belong to the most vulnerable class of people to die from this virus. Do you think they were willing to risk their own lives and the lives of their loved ones to close your church? This adversarial reaction within the Church is absolutely a consequence of ignorance and bad teaching. Remember, I’m not talking about all churches here – some of them have done an excellent job navigating this disaster. But the ones who automatically reacted by orienting themselves in opposition to government and health care institutions are filtering their experience through an incorrect understanding of Scripture.
The problem is they have a wrong definition of the world. Scripture teaches that we should be in the world but not of the world and that the world is against Christ. So many Christians have taken this to mean that anything not found in a church service should not be trusted and should be resisted. They believe anything not found in a church service is what Scripture considers the world. This is patently false. When Scripture references the world it is speaking of individuals who are devoid of the Holy Spirit and the systems they construct in an attempt to replace God. In biblical terms, you can think of the world as the pagans who built temples and established the worship of idols. The world is the cult-like savagery that results when God removes His protective hand from a civilization. The ways of humanity are naturally cult-like and savage. So when Scripture discusses us resisting the world or the ways of man it is not referring to science and the creation. Scientific principles exist whether humanity knows about them or not. Scientific principles and the creation belong to God not man. It is fundamentally unbiblical to risk the safety and well-being of your church by resisting the advice of our medical experts on the basis of resisting the world or the ways of humanity. That is the wrong way of thinking about it. We must stop reacting to misinformation and conspiracy theories. That sort of thing is how panic is spread. This is just a virus. We are only practicing temporary social distancing measures because those measures represent our single best weapon against the nightmare dystopia that attends 2.2 million dead.
Another point this camp is missing is the fact that the economic crisis is self-imposed and predictable. We’ve been studying economics for ages. We’ve learned from the fallout of events like the Great Depression. It’s not as if our officials didn’t anticipate what a full-scale economic shutdown would lead to. That’s the whole point of the massive stimulus package. It’s true that shutting down the economy does not come without pain. But there are no painless options. It became too late for a painless outcome when China lied to the world about this pandemic. So wouldn’t you rather we opt for the pain that we understand, can control, and know how to repair? We already know what to do to work our way out of this economic crisis. We don’t know what to do when it comes to this virus. This virus is new and that means we don’t fully understand it. The problems you don’t understand tend to have far worse outcomes than the problems you do understand. The economic shutdown is a crisis-level problem. But it’s not a black swan like this virus is.
On the other end of the extreme we have this problem of tyranny. There’s an alarming number of people who seem jubilant about the opportunity to turn in their neighbors for not social distancing properly. This behavior has got to stop. There are certain lines you just don’t cross, and looking for ways to enslave your brothers and sisters to the government is definitely one of them. There’s a faction of people who are typically Left-leaning in their political orientation who seem to relish this economic shutdown. The virus has become the ultimate chess piece of virtue signaling for these bad actors. If you question whether Americans should be getting citations for something as innocent as going for a drive, these bad actors scream that you must not care about millions dying from coronavirus. If you suggest we need to remain watchful of corrupt individuals seeking to take advantage of this pandemic to seize power, they scream that you must value money more than human life. This outrage from the Left is nothing but absolutely transparent virtue signaling – because many of these commentators are also advocates of late-term abortion. How can you value human life and also advocate for the abortion of human life? You can’t unless your purported value for human life is a fake manipulation you’re using for some other motive.
What’s the other motive? Well, it turns out this economic shutdown is worse for some than it is for others. It’s far worse for those who have something to lose. So if you worked your whole life to ascend the hierarchy of employment and you had a good job which is now gone – then you’ve lost a lot more than the person who’s been sitting on their couch for a decade. And I think there’s an awful lot of people at the bottom of the hierarchy who enjoy seeing successful people fall. Just think about it. If your neighbor who worked her whole life to have the job you want all of a sudden loses that job – it sort of validates your decision to put no effort into working yourself. Both of you are now in the same position of being stuck on the couch, but she sacrificed way more than you did to get there. Another reason why useless and resentful people enjoy watching productive people fall is that the ensuing vacancy gives them a second chance. Imagine if you made a long series of mistakes that set you back a decade from where your neighbor is financially. Along comes this virus and now both of you are broke. The start lines are reset and you have this new opportunity to begin the race from zero. You can finally get ahead of them. Maybe if the shutdown lasts long enough major companies will dissolve and new ones will emerge in their place – which means many potential opportunities for yourself at the expense of your neighbor. So no, many of the people on the Left are not advocating prolonged shutdown because they care about human life. They’re advocating it because it validates their lifelong incompetence and gives them a chance to restart their financial life by sacrificing yours.
So we need to be careful about taking things at face value when someone claims their motives are purely altruistic. It’s likely that they’re not. But that still doesn’t solve the problem of the virus. Corrupt people attempting to take advantage of the virus doesn’t make the virus any less real or any less dangerous. The simple truth is that we cannot take our foot off the gas in social distancing until we have a handle on this thing. The cost is too high. Italy is suffering from a death rate that is something like 10% and that has less to do with age and more to do with the fact that their hospitals are crushed. Are you willing to take that kind of chance with your own life or with the lives of your loved ones? The only correct way to approach this problem is slowly and methodically. Panic is the enemy here. The people who want to reopen the economy and throw caution to the wind are panicking. The people who want to shutdown everything that moves and breathes are panicking. Panic is the reason why both of those ideas are more like cytokine storms and less like solutions. Make no mistake, it is possible to do far more damage with our response to the virus than the virus itself can do.
So we need to think this through calmly and carefully. If you’re listening to this and you feel like it’s beyond your control – this next part is for you. The way we solve this problem is on an individual-to-individual basis. As an individual, you have great power over this virus and whether you or your loved ones get infected. The first step is to stay home. Do not leave home unless you need to. Needs qualify as groceries, taking care of dependents, getting some exercise, that sort of thing. The more time you spend in your house the less chance you have of being infected. Next is to make sure that you stay more than six feet away from other people when you are in public. This is easier than it sounds. Don’t go down that aisle in the grocery store that has a lot of people in it. Go look for something else and come back when the aisle is empty. Give people a wide berth when you have to walk past them. Avoid confined spaces altogether. A big one here is cars. Do not ride in a car with someone who might be infected. If you have to take a loved one to the hospital, then put on a mask (even if you have to make one) so that you can have some protection. More importantly, have them wear a mask to prevent the virus from shedding into your space.
You need to wash your hands as if your life depends on it – because it does. Every time you exit or enter your house make sure you wash your hands. A pro tip here is to keep lotion near by and apply lotion as soon as your hands dry. This will prevent the misery that attends dry, chapped hands. Make sure you’re getting enough sleep. Few things will compromise your immune system faster than sleep deprivation. Try to take a multivitamin every morning and keep a healthy diet. And always remember, catching this virus is anything but a death sentence. Even in places like Italy the vast majority of infected people are fully recovering on their own. You also have to think about your psychological well-being. This coronavirus event is very dynamic which means it’s impossible to tell what’s coming in the future for you. So stop looking into the future. Shorten your time-frame and take this one day at a time. The unknown causes anxiety and anxiety causes your body to release cortisol and cortisol is the enemy of your immune system. These times are far less challenging if you’re focusing on each task you need to get done moment to moment. The last thing you want to do is take all of these small tasks and pile them up into an insuperable mountain. Those are some things you can actively do to play your part in solving this crisis on the virus-side of things.
Now let’s talk about the economic and governmental side of things. Economic crisis and authoritarianism are not something that should be summarily dismissed. It’s possible for things to get so bad that you’ll wish the virus killed you. But we have to honestly ask ourselves if economic crisis and authoritarianism are actually happening here. It’s possible the political climate prior to this virus is fueling our fears of tyranny by making us extra sensitive to it. Many people on the Left have been shouting about the perceived tyranny of Trump. Many people on the Right have been calling out the reemergence of communism on the Left. I understand the fears of sacrificing your liberty in order to slow the spread of coronavirus. I understand the potential problems that attend centralized power. But think about it like this: imagine you’re about to walk down a dark and dangerous alley with your child. Are you going to let the child roam free and play on all the dumpsters in the name of his or her constitutional liberty? Or are you going to hold your child’s hand and not let them out of your sight. There is no option of not walking through the darkness. We as Americans are walking into that dark alley right now. The choice to avoid it was stolen from us by a corrupt regime. Now we have to go. If we walk through it stupidly there is going to be a tremendous and real cost to human life. 2.2 million dead. This stark reality is that this virus does not care about our Bill of Rights. We must temporarily and voluntarily suspend our rights in order to take up the responsibility of beating this thing. There’s nothing stopping us from keeping a watchful eye for corrupt leaders who seek to make this temporary suspension permanent. We should definitely keep a watchful eye.
The great thing about dark alleys is that they end and there is light on the other side. At the time of this podcast, we don’t have any reason to think that there won’t be an end to these social distancing measures. We know why the government is doing them and so we know the guidelines will come to an end. It’s just not helpful to speak about the virus as if it’s personally interested in shutting down your church. It’s also not helpful to speak about the U.S. government as if it’s a communist regime – because it’s not. One of the many temporary problems we will have to deal with during this disaster is the bad neighbor. The bad neighbor is the one who’s trying to exercise authoritarian tyranny over you by turning you in or accusing you of not valuing human life. These people are just irritants that will go away when the disaster does. It’s important to separate these bad actors from the proper CDC guidelines and movements of our Federal Government. As of right now it’s a mistake to view this sort of behavior as foreshadowing the death of liberty. Everything is going to be okay. You have two jobs to do each day until this is over. First is to manage the virus – which means taking the personal precautions we discussed earlier. Second is to manage your finances. Get on the phone or the internet and apply for as much assistance as you can. There’s never been a moment where the phrase the squeaky wheel gets the grease is more applicable than right now. If the websites are down and the phones are tied up then remain patient and try again later. You will get through this.
All of us have a long road ahead of us. But the fact that we are all in this together means we are not alone. We can support each other and lift each other up until coronavirus is nothing but a bad memory. Now is your opportunity to be the kind of person who loves your neighbor as you love yourself. These kinds of tragedies are precisely what Jesus was referring to when He told us to take heart in Him. I want to finish this episode by simply reading His words to you from the final two passages of John chapter 16. For those who are watching this on YouTube I’m not going to display the text here – just sit back and enjoy.
Joh 16:16 “A little while, and you will see me no longer; and again a little while, and you will see me.”
Joh 16:17 So some of his disciples said to one another, “What is this that he says to us, ‘A little while, and you will not see me, and again a little while, and you will see me’; and, ‘because I am going to the Father’?”
Joh 16:18 So they were saying, “What does he mean by ‘a little while’? We do not know what he is talking about.”
Joh 16:19 Jesus knew that they wanted to ask him, so he said to them, “Is this what you are asking yourselves, what I meant by saying, ‘A little while and you will not see me, and again a little while and you will see me’?
Joh 16:20 Truly, truly, I say to you, you will weep and lament, but the world will rejoice. You will be sorrowful, but your sorrow will turn into joy.
Joh 16:21 When a woman is giving birth, she has sorrow because her hour has come, but when she has delivered the baby, she no longer remembers the anguish, for joy that a human being has been born into the world.
Joh 16:22 So also you have sorrow now, but I will see you again, and your hearts will rejoice, and no one will take your joy from you.
Joh 16:23 In that day you will ask nothing of me. Truly, truly, I say to you, whatever you ask of the Father in my name, he will give it to you.
Joh 16:24 Until now you have asked nothing in my name. Ask, and you will receive, that your joy may be full.
Joh 16:25 “I have said these things to you in figures of speech. The hour is coming when I will no longer speak to you in figures of speech but will tell you plainly about the Father.
Joh 16:26 In that day you will ask in my name, and I do not say to you that I will ask the Father on your behalf;
Joh 16:27 for the Father himself loves you, because you have loved me and have believed that I came from God.
Joh 16:28 I came from the Father and have come into the world, and now I am leaving the world and going to the Father.”
Joh 16:29 His disciples said, “Ah, now you are speaking plainly and not using figurative speech!
Joh 16:30 Now we know that you know all things and do not need anyone to question you; this is why we believe that you came from God.”
Joh 16:31 Jesus answered them, “Do you now believe?
Joh 16:32 Behold, the hour is coming, indeed it has come, when you will be scattered, each to his own home, and will leave me alone. Yet I am not alone, for the Father is with me.
Joh 16:33 I have said these things to you, that in me you may have peace. In the world you will have tribulation. But take heart; I have overcome the world.”
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